Future Ready
How To Master Business Forecasting
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Steve Morlidge has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems in Unilever, including three years as the lead of a global chage project. He is a former Chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round table and now works as an academic and independent consultant for a range of major companies. He is a prominent public speaker, drawing on his years of experience at the leading edge of performance management thought and practice.
steve.morlidge_satoripartners.co.uk
Steve Player, founder and managing director of The Player Group, has co-authored and edited five industry-leading cost and performance management books. He is program director for the Beyond Budgeting Round Table in North America. He served as the Managing Partner of the Advanced Cost Management Team of a global accounting firm. He is a top ranked speaker and consultant helping clients implement leading edge practices. He also writes a monthly column on Finance Transformation.
splayer_beyondeps.com
ENDORSEMENTS
"A timely resource for these turbulent times-- this book provides terrific insign into both sophisticated methodology and the "soft" factors that must be contemplated in developing effective forecats. The authors also include a valuable section providing practical guidance on implementation and development of forecasts."
Jack Alexander, Former CFO, Consultant and Author of Performance Dashboards and Analysis for Value Creation
"As this book vividly demonstrates through its many case studies, forecasting quality is a life or death issue for organizations of all types, and the current economic turmoilmakes strong "navigational" capabilities all the more critical. Future Ready is therefore a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future successes. This book is immensely readable, deeply practical and unquestionably authoritative-- drawing on the authors' extensive practical experience of leading and reinventing forecasting processes in major corporations and the unique insights derived from their deep academic research. Its rich offering of theory, human and organizational observation, case studies and practical solutions will appeal to tall actors in the drama of forecasting, and I would urge business leaders and forecasting practitioners alike to undertake the journey of transformation as it advocates so powerfully."
Paul Baumann, Director of Finance and Investment, NHS London
"The business world needs more books like this one! Based on brilliant observations from ther deep experience and knowledge of both the business front-line and the business library, Morlidge and Player not only reveals serioius problems with current forecasting practices and offer valuable advice and alternatives, they also do so in a uniquely simple and entertaining way. Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one."
Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro and Author of Implementing Beyond Budgeting
"In my opinion Player and Morlidge help Business Executives develop a robust and very sound process for decision making in today's hectically fast paced world. This book provides a cornerstone to business success."
A. J. Braniff, Senior Vice President, Business Development, Whoop Inc.
"Steve Player and Steve Morlidge have produced a 'must read' for CFOs. In these turbulent financial times, effective forecasting is vital to future business success. They have provided the blue print to guide us to this success."
Patricia Cochran, CFO, VSP Vision Care
"This book on forecasting addresses an important topic as executive teams shift their managerial style from after-the-fact reaction to a forward-looking anticipatory planning so that executives, managers, and employee teams can be proactive in making adjustments and resolve small problems before they become big ones."
Gary Cokins, SAS, Performance Management Solutions and Author of Performance Management- Integrating Strategy Execution, Methodologies, Risk and Analytics
"The ability to forecast has always been a precondition for any kind of successful navigation. In today's globally connected, constantly changing and fast evolving world of business, effective forecasting becomes a survival factor for any kind of enterprise. Yet, the discipline of effective business forecasting is still in its infancy- particularly the understanding of how to design and implement effective forecasting in an organization, especially a larger orgainzation. With "Future Ready" Steve Morlidge and Steve Player do an excellent job in putting together the pieces required for effective forecasting by integrating the thinking from various disciplines and different communitites of thinking and in showing us how a more holistic, integrated approach to forecasting may lead to better enterprise management that is futrue ready."
Juergen Daum, Management Advisor and Chief Solution Architect, SAP, and President and Founder, International Institute of Enterprise- Heidelberg
"A detailed and thought provoking look at a fundamental area of corporate financial planning. Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us don't understand either as well or as in as much detail as we should.
Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting system."
Liz Doherty, CFO, Brambles Ltd
"Business Forecasting is a process all organizations do, but rarely do they do it well, Other books on the topic typically include complex analytical models that even most PhDs could not understand, or are so simplistic that they are not useful. This book provides a practical and understandable approach that can be put to use immediately. Steve and Steve have an ability to communicate complex concepts in simple language and provide an approach based on real experience working with major corporations and non profits that will allow your organization to better predict future performance. Should be required reading for all executives and Business school students."
Mark Graham Brown, Author of Beyond the Balanced Scorecard
"The roller-coaster of the last twelve months shows that this is a timely addition to management thinking. Those of us involved in the dark arts of forecasting know how difficult it can be in practice and that it can make or break the best laid of intentions. more importantly, we know that when done well, great forecasting as a core competency can be a source of competitive advantage in the way companies deplow and optimise the allocation of resources.
But, here we have a text that helps shine a bright light on this whole area and it does so in a practical, engaging, and thought provoking way. The deep practical experience of the authors shines through. I can recommend that reading this book will be a good investment of your time and will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward."
Howard Green, Group Controller and SVP Finance Categories, Unilever PLC
"Knowing the authors well, I wasn't surprised when I read this thoughtful, well grounded book. But, working in a company that prides itself on its intensely pragmatic approach to business, I was delighted by the simple and strraightforward way in which sophisticated ideas have been expressed and the focus on practical application. This combination makes this a book for the executive suite- as well as the back office."
Andrew Higginson, Chief Executive of Retailing Services, and former CFO, Tesco PLC
"Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting is a timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement. Criteria for superior practices are developed, including the obtaining organizational alignment and achieving significant benefits at reasonable costs.
The experienced authors include specific forecasting cases from actual practice. This book provides a lively description of successful experiences in improving management performance in both planning and control."
Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus, Stanford University and Author of Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis (12th ed), Introduction to Management Accounting, (13th ed), Accounting, (6th ed), Financial Accounting, (6th ed)
"This is a very useful book for managers, because its focus is on the forecasting process and not on the technique."
Professor Dr. Peter Horvath, Chairman, Horvath and Partners
"This book puts its finger on most of the importnant lessons I have learned from my 25 years of experience of running and using and consulting in this area, and a lot more besides. It is profound as well as practical; challenging the reader to think again about the way in which they go about doing business."
Martin Jarvis, CEO, D1 Fuel Crops Ltd
"Sustainability in a business context is not about the here and now but about survival into the future. This is the challenge for business managers. No one can precisely predict the future, but organizations that are better prepared to weather the storms of uncertainty will not only survive but thrive."
Aubrey Joachim, FCMA MBA, Global President, Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA); Principal Consultant, Leading Edge Change- Australia and Australasian Director, BBRT
"There are many broken processes in most organizations, and forecasting is one with a big impact. The authors help the reader discover and expose the fractures and the impact of these fractures. Their methodical approach to "healing the fractures" is equivalent to a living feedback system checking reality against assumptions and adjusting as necessary. A great way for a flexible company to minimize surprises and create solid countermeasures."
Beau Keyte, Founder of Branson Inc. and Co-author of The Complete Lean Enterprise: Value Stream Mapping for Office and Administrative Processes, Shingo Prize winner 2005
"Conducting a traditional budgeting and planning process is tantamount to a gross misuse of company resources. Enlightened firms are learning to focus on the key drivers of revenue and expense, and to plan and forecast continuously as market conditions inevitably change. This flexibility is necessary to succeed and to ensure that strategic investments are not crowded out."
Dave Martin, CFO, Dimensional Fund Advisors
"The recent recession has made one thing clear in business- the rules have changed. No longer can companies operate in discrete and clearly defined operating timeframes. Many companies have realized that the operating parameters used in setting annual budgets in January become obsolete by the end of the first quarter. So, it is an imperative that companies develop a much more dynamic process in keeping the annual budget relevant to the changing market dynamics. Changing the annual plan targets and parameters can be a tricky effort as it is important that the overall goals and targets are not compromised as market conditions change. But rather, the path to those goals and targets must be dynamic and flexible enough to allow alternative paths for accomplishing a company's goals.
A key to a dynamic path is a forecasting process that is integrated into the fabric of the tactical decision making process for a company. The forecasting process must be able to link the sales, marketing and operations personnel so that the changes in one area complemlent others rather than create conflict and resistance. Coordination of efforts to react to changes in market conditions is a key to success for any company in this new and dynamic business environment that we face daily."
Brian McMahon, Assistant Controller, The Hershey Company
AUTHORS' BLOG
Coming Soon!
BOOK TOUR DATES
May 20, 2010
DFW IMA Chapter Meeting
Crowne Plaza Dallas
14315 Midway Road | Addison, Texas
4:30 p.m.
Steve Player
PAST EVENTS
January 13, 2010
CIMA Central Southern England Event
Holiday Inn Guildford
Egerton Road | Guildford GU2 7XZ
7:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m.
Steve Morlidge
January 18, 2010
Hull University Business School
Seminar Room 5/5A
Ian Calvert 01482 463183
6:30 p.m. - 7:30 p.m.
Register Here
February 1 & 2, 2010
Institute of Business Forecasters
European Supply Chain Planning and Forecasting Conference
Radisson Edwardian Heathrow Hotel
140 Bath Road | Hayes Middlesex
February 16, 2010
CIMA South Eastern England Event
Holiday Inn Gatwick
Povey Cross Road | Horley
February 25, 2010
Dallas, Texas
Book Signing- Borders Uptown
3600 McKinney | Dallas, TX 75204
5:30 p.m.
April 21-23, 2010
9th Annual Beyond Budgeting Conference
Omni Dallas Hotel at Park West
1590 Lyndon B Johnson Freeway | Dallas, TX 75234
Steve Player & Steve Morlidge
Interested in Steve Player or Steve Morlidge speaking at your event? Contact us here:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
FOREWORD
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
SECTION 1 Why?
Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble Ive Seen
Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy
SECTION 2 Principles
Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose the Cassandra Paradox
Chapter 3 Mastering Time Delay and Decision
Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future
Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement Learning to Love Error
Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive
SECTION 3 Praxis
Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune
Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps
Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be?
Theme #3 Whose job is it anyway? Roles and responsibilities
SECTION 4 Transformation
Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings
Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier
Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model?
Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection
GLOSSARY
Appendix 1-- Design Principles: A Summary
Appendix 2-- Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics
REFERENCES
INDEX
"All the business of war, and indeed all the business of
life, is to endeavor to find out what you don't
know by what you do; that's what I called
'guessing what was at the other side of the hill'."
The First Duke of Wellington
Download Preface &
Sample Chapter Here
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All Rights Reserved. Future Ready. (c) 2010
